Type of Credit: Elective
Credit(s)
Number of Students
The Tiananmen Crisis of 1989 revealed the fragility of the newly normalized relationship between the United States and China. Within a few years, however, leaders in both countries launched efforts to build a more stable and cooperative relationship. Over the subsequent decades, they employed several recurring strategies: encouraging social and economic interdependence, integrating China into international regimes and institutions, holding frequent official dialogues to resolve outstanding issues, building personal relationships between elites in both countries, and articulating a positive vision for their future relationship. By the American presidential election of 2016, however, there was a growing consensus in the U.S. that these efforts had failed. The subsequent trade and technology “war” between the two countries, with the reciprocal imposition of various kinds of sanctions against each other, have transformed the relationship from the hope of cooperation to the reality of competition and the risk of confrontation. What went wrong? Was American China policy based on faulty assumptions? Was it poorly implemented? Did it fail to respond to the shifts in the relative power of the two countries? Or did it fall victim to changing domestic economic and political conditions in the two countries? This course will explore the causes of foreign policy failure, using American policy toward China as an important case.
能力項目說明
Students are expected to attend each class session and to participate actively in the seminar discussions. In addition, by midnight on the Wednesday before each class session, they should write a short (one page, or around 250 words) reaction paper, presenting a question or conclusion based on the required readings for the class and be prepared to present it or discuss it in class the following day. (Instructions on how to submit these reaction papers will be provided at the first-class meeting.) Class attendance and participation, and these short “take-aways” and their presentation in class will count for one-third of the course grade.
Students will also be required to write a 4,000-word term paper on one of the most important aspects of American policy toward China since the Tiananmen Square Crisis of 1989, again building on the analytical framework developed in the course. The paper should explore the goals the policy was expected to achieve and the empirical assessments and analytical assumptions on which it was based. It should then provide a description of the policy’s outcomes, and an evaluation of whether the policy was cost-effective in advancing those goals.
The topic of the paper can be one of the elements of the engagement policy discussed in class or another of the student’s own choosing. While the papers can draw on the assigned readings in the course, students are expected to do additional research. The recommended readings are a good place to start. Beyond the memoirs and biographies of key decisionmakers and the chronological treatments contained in such journals as Asian Survey and on-line publications such as Comparative Connections (http://cc.pacforum.org/past-issues/), students may be interested in using the primary sources available through the Miller Center’s oral history project (https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-oral-histories) and the declassified materials acquired by the National Security Archive at George Washington University through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. See (https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/guide-researchers).
A brief statement of the proposed topic will be due on April 26. The paper itself will be due no later than June 16 and will account for two-thirds of the course grade. Details on the statement of the paper topic and the formatting of the term papers will be provided later.
| 教學週次Course Week | 彈性補充教學週次Flexible Supplemental Instruction Week | 彈性補充教學類別Flexible Supplemental Instruction Type |
|---|---|---|
Class Schedule and Readings
Required readings
Harding, Harry, “Policy success and policy failure: A framework for analysis.”
Walt, Stephen M., “Making the grade,” Foreign Policy, January 6, 2014.
Recommended readings
Andrews, Matt, “Public policy failure: ‘How often’? and ‘What is failure anyway’?” CID Working Paper Series (2018).
McConnell, Allan. “Policy success, policy failure and grey areas in-between,” Journal of Public Policy 30, no. 3 (2010): 345-362.
Schuck, Peter H., Why Government Fails So Often: And How It Can Do Better, Princeton; Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2014.
Required readings
Bush, Richard C., “A One-China policy primer,” Brookings Institution, March 2017.
Feldman, Harvey, “President Reagan's six assurances to Taiwan and their meaning today,” The Heritage Foundation, October 2, 2007.
Harding, Harry, A Fragile Relationship: The United States and China since 1972, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1992, chs. 2-3.
Mann, James, About Face: A History of America's Curious Relationship with China, New York: Vintage Books, 2000, ch. 17.
Sutter, Robert, “Taiwan: The ‘Three No's,’ Congressional-administration differences, and U.S. policy issues,” CRS Report for Congress, October 1, 1998.
Tucker, Nancy Bernkopf (ed.), China Confidential: American Diplomats and Sino-American Relations, 1945-1996, New York: Columbia University Press, 2001, pp. 477-81
Tucker, Nancy Bernkopf, “Taiwan expendable? Nixon and Kissinger go to China.” The Journal of American History 92, no. 1 (2005): 109-135.
Recommended readings
Kissinger, Henry, On China, New York: Penguin Books, 2012, ch. 9 and 14.
Required readings
Harding, A Fragile Relationship, chs. 4, 5 and 6.
Mann, About Face, chs. 9 and 11.
Lampton, David, “America's China policy in the age of the finance minister: Clinton ends linkage,” The China Quarterly 139 (1994): 597-621.
Recommended readings
Harding, A Fragile Relationship, chs. 7 and 8.
Kissinger, On China, chs. 16 and 17.
Required readings
Bergsten, Fred, “A partnership of equals: How Washington should respond to China's economic challenge,” Foreign Affairs 87, no. 4 (2008): 57-69.
Bergsten, Fred, “Two’s company,” Foreign Affairs, September 1, 2009.
Feng, Zhongping, and Jing Huang, “China’s strategic partnership diplomacy: Engaging with a changing world.” ESPO Working Paper No. 8, 2014.
Harding, Harry, “The United States and China from partners to competitors,” paper for the Carter Center’s symposium to commemorate President Carter’s 1979 decision to normalize relations with China, 2019.
Lampton, David M., “A new type of major-power relationship: Seeking a durable foundation for US-China ties.” Asia Policy 16 (2013): 51-68.
Required readings
Christensen, Thomas, The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of A Rising Power, New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2015, Prologue.
Mai, Jun, “Former top US trade negotiator Charlene Barshefsky says China deviated from its commitments, paving way for trade war,” South China Moring Post, January 1, 2019.
Roach, Stephen, Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2014, Preface, chs. 11 and 12.
Recommended readings and videos
Gordon, Bernard K. “Getting to Investment Reciprocity with China: Why It's Time to Play Hardball.” Foreign Affairs, November 9, 2016.
Ma, Xiaoye, “On reciprocity,” China-US Focus, June 8, 2018.
McBride, James, and Andrew Chatzky, “Is ‘Made In China 2025’ a threat to global trade?” Council on Foreign Relations, May 13, 2019.
Paulson, Henry, Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower, New York: Twelve, 2015, chs. 11-14.
Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert (producers), “American Factory” (A Netflix documentary)
U.S. Chamber of Commerce, “Made in China 2025: Global ambitions built on local protections,” March 16, 2017.
April 5: NO CLASS (Tomb Sweeping Festival)
Required readings
Economy, Elizabeth, “Why China is no climate leader,” Politico, June 12, 2017.
Economy, Elizabeth, “Trade: Parade of broken promises,” Democracy: A Journal of Ideas, no. 52, 2019.
Johnston, Alastair Iain, “Is China a status quo power?” International security 27, no. 4 (2003): 5-56.
Rajaratnam School of International Studies, “China and global norms,” March 28, 2018.
Zoellick, Robert, “Whither China: From membership to responsibility,” September 21, 2005.
Recommended readings
Economy, Elizabeth, and Michel Oksenberg (eds.), China Joins the World: Progress and Prospects, New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1999.
U.S. Trade Representative, “2018 report to Congress on China’s WTO compliance,” February 2019.
Required readings
Bader, Jeffrey A., Obama and China's Rise: An Insider's Account of America's Asia, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2012, chs. 3, 6, 7, 11.
Lieberthal, Kenneth G., and Jisi Wang, “Addressing U.S.-China strategic distrust.” Brookings Institution, March 2012.
Shambaugh, David, “Of U.S.-China summits, past and present,” Brookings Institution, January 18, 2011.
Wheeler, Nicholas J., Trusting Enemies: Interpersonal Relationships in International Conflict, Conclusion.
Recommended readings
Chan, Steve, Trust and Distrust in Sino-American Relations: Challenge and Opportunity, Amherst, New York: Cambria Press, 2017.
Economy, Elizabeth, “ Xi-Obama: The Good-Enough Summit”
Graham Webster, “A false start for Trump and Xi,” Foreign Affairs, April 10, 2017.
Li, Cheng, “The Trump-Xi summit: The strategic impact of personal relationships,” China-US Focus, April 5, 2017. [[on Mar-Lago]
Recommended video
Eikenberry, Karl, “The possibilities and limits of Sino-American military relations”
https://youtu.be/4WVmzPeAuAU
Required readings
Blank, Stephen, “Rethinking arms control should include China,” The Hill, May 7, 2019.
Bolton, John R., “A new Africa strategy: Expanding economic and security ties
on the basis of mutual respect,” speech delivered on December 13, 2018.
Brown, Gary, and Christopher D. Yung, “Evaluating the US-China Cybersecurity Agreement,” Parts 1-3, The Diplomat, January 19 and January 21, 2017.
Lipscy, Philip, “Who’s afraid of the AIIB? Why the U.S. should support China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,” Foreign Affairs, May 7, 2015.
Petti, Matthew, “U.S.-China competition meets the climate challenge,” The National Interest, August 1, 2019.
Small, Andrew et al., “Is China a Credible Partner in Fighting Terror?” ChinaFile, November 19, 2015.
Stratfor, “Why China Will Steer Clear of a New START on Arms Control,” May 14, 2019.
Zhang, Denghua, “US-China development cooperation: New dynamics?” East-West Center, September 13, 2018.
Recommended readings
Asia Society, “A vital partnership: California and China collaborating on
clean energy and combating climate change,” 2014.
Drew Thompson, “Trump may or may not Meet Xi. But first, Chinese and US generals need to talk,” South China Morning Post, October 24, 2018.
Zhen, Wang, “China-US counter-terrorism cooperation,” International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, February 27, 2017.
Required readings
Campbell, Kurt, The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia, New York: Twelve, 2016, chs. 1, 3 and 5.
Dews, Fred, “Pivot, rebalance, or reinvigorate? Words matter in U.S. strategy toward Asia,” Brookings Institution, April 21, 2014.
Lieberthal, Kenneth, “The American pivot to Asia,” Brookings Institution, December 21, 2011.
Zhao, Suisheng. "Shaping the regional context of China's rise: how the Obama administration brought back hedge in its engagement with China," Journal of Contemporary China 21, no. 75 (2012): 369-389.
Required readings
“Paradigm Shift” (Wikipedia)
Cassidy, John, “The Minsky moment: Subprime mortgage crisis and possible recession,” New Yorker, January 27, 2008.
Harding, Harry, “Has US China policy failed?” The Washington Quarterly 38, no. 3 (2015): 95-122.
Rogin, Josh. Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century, New York, New York. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2021, Chapter 12.
Required video
McCourt, David, “American hegemony and the rise of China” (video) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdAK0rJUuvQ
Required readings
Bown, Chad P., and Melina Kolb, “Trump’s trade war timeline: An up-to-date guide,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 18, 2020.
Financial Post, “How China Won Trump’s Trade War and Got Americans to Foot the Bill” January 11, 2021.
The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China, "China’s position on the China-US economic and trade consultations" (June 2019)
U.S. Trade Representative, “2019 report to Congress on China’s WTO compliance,” March 2020, pp. 1-29. [skim the rest].
U.S. Trade Representative, “Economic and trade agreement between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China: Fact sheet,” January 15, 2020.
Recommended readings and videos
“Steve Bannon and Thomas Friedman on U.S.-China trade war” (video) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYraLI04WiU&t=358s
Brown, Chad P., “Trump's phase one trade deal with China and the US election,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, October 27, 2020.
Davis, Bob, and Lingling Wei, Superpower Showdown: How the Battle between Trump and Xi Threatens A New Cold War, New York, NY: Harper Business, 2020.
Peter Navarro, “Death by China” (video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMlmjXtnIXI
Required readings
Pei, Minxin, “America needs to talk about China,” The Strategist, July 24, 2019.
Policy Planning Staff, U.S. Department of State, “Elements of the China Challenge,” November 2020.
Pompeo, Michael R., “Communist China and the free world’s future,” July 23, 2020.
Schadlow, Nadia, “The end of American illusion: Trump and the world as it is,” Foreign Affairs 99, no. 5 (2020), 35-45.
Shambaugh, David, “Parsing the Trump administration’s broadside against China,” China-US Focus, July 31, 2020.
Xinhua, “Fact check: Pompeo's fact-twisting China speech versus the truth,” August 24, 2020.
Recommended readings
National Security Council, “US strategic framework for the Indo-Pacific,” declassified on January 12, 2021.
National Security Council, “United States strategic approach to the People’s Republic of China,” May 26, 2020.
Required Readings
Hal Brands, “China and the U.S. Are in a New Cold War,” Bloomberg, January 14, 2019.
Melvin Leffler, “China Isn’t the Soviet Union. Confusing the Two Is Dangerous,” The Atlantic, December 2, 2019.
Juan Zhang and Shannon Tiezzi, “Harry Harding on the US, China, and ‘Cold War 2.0,” The Diplomat, October 21, 2020
Jo-Inge bekkevold, “5 Ways the U.S.-China Cold War Will Be Different From the Last One,” Washington Post, December 2, 2022.
Required readings
Steinberg, James, “What went wrong? U.S.-China relations from Tiananmen to Trump,” Texas National Security Review 3, no. 1 (Winter 2019/2020): 119-133.Campbell, Kurt, and Ely Ratner. “The China reckoning: How Beijing defied American expectations,” Foreign Affairs 97, no. 2 (2018): 60-70.
David Stilwell, “Engagement With China Is Not an End in Itself,” Eurasia Review, January 1, 2022.
Harry Harding, “The United States and China from partners to competitors.” [review]
June 16: TERM PAPERS DUE
Required Readings
Levy, Jack, “Learning and Foreign Policy: Sweeping a Conceptual Minefield,” International organization 48, no. 2 (1994): 279-312.
For each week’s class, students will be expected to read the assigned materials carefully and prepare a short (no more than one-page) reaction paper in which they represent either the main conclusion they drew from the readings or the most important question that they think remains unanswered, to serve as a basis for class discussion.
In addition, students will be required to write a short research paper, the nature of which will be determined later depending on the size of the class.
The use of generative AI tools is conditionally permitted in this course (details will be discussed during the class).