| Business Valaution 企業評價 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Fall, 2023 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Department of Finance |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Instructor：吳啟銘 Chiming Wu, Ph.D., CFA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 上課時間: Tue.. 567; 商館 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Office: 政大商學院 1208室 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| TEL: 2939-3091~81208 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| E-mail：ericwu@nccu.edu.tw |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 作業及報告的繳交email : ericwu@g.nccu.edu.tw |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Office Hour: Thur. 17:00-18;00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Course Objectives: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 透過教材研讀與個案討論, 使學員掌握產業/企業價值的Key Value Drivers, 進而透過策略擬定與行動 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 執行, 創造企業價值. 透過此課程, 學員可習得: (1)) 企業價值如何衡量 (2) 企業價值的關鍵因子 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| (3) 企業價值創造策略 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 課程價值 |
* 投資銀行基本功夫--財務分析及企業評價能力 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
* 透過YOUTUBE, 聯結及解讀國際評價專家之知識及技術 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
* CFA /CIIA (國際投資分析師) equity valuation 準備 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
* 外資分析師基本功夫 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
* 掌握未來新產業與新價值創造營運模式 (e.g. 平台營運模式) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
*CFA得獎研究報告學習, 模仿及優化精進 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 教材 Class Materials |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| A. Required |
企業評價個案實証分析 (再版), 吳啟銘, 智勝出版., 2010(Contact phone:23886368) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
CFA Level II 股票評價教材 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
CFA 競賽冠軍個案 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Youtube |
Damodaran |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
CFA 專家演講 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
CFA material及考題 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| B. Optional |
Valuation, Measuring and Managing The Value of Companies, McKinsey & Company, |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Inc., Koller, T. & Goedhart, M., & Wessels D., 4th edition, 2006, Wiley (Contact Phone: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
23773877) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
外資報告 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 彈性課程: 網路課程:第15週: CFA speech Lesson from COVID19 (Aswath Damodaran,2020/11) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Class Schedule |
|
|
|
|
|
|
章節 |
預習作業 |
|
|
投入時數 |
|
| PART I. Key Value Drivers--Corporate Performance Measurement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
| 9月12日 |
1 |
|
企業評價導讀 |
|
|
|
|
chapter 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
前半段課程說明, 選出課代, 請課代協助建立line 群組及雲端教材資料夾, 預習繳交的寄送信箱 |
|
| |
|
|
Youtube Lisitng |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
樣本期末報告1 Nike |
|
樣本期末報告2 台光電 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
樣本期末報告3 Nvidia |
樣本期末報告4 微星 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
CFA 競賽得獎報告ppt |
CFA 競賽得獎報告PDF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9月19日 |
2 |
|
經濟利潤 (EVA) 之衡量, 分析 與管理 |
|
|
chapter 2 |
一頁作業 -- 企業評價有何應用價值? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Discount rate如何決定? |
|
|
|
|
一頁作業 -- EVA 的應用價值及限制為何? |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
| |
|
|
Cost of capital (CFA materials) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Measure of finacla leverage |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Valuation: A Preview |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYGYvN5LUbA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Residual income model(CFA materials) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 9月26日 |
3 |
|
自由現金流量 (FCF) 之衡量, 分析 與管理 |
|
|
chapter 3 |
一頁作業 -- FCF的應用價值及限制為何? |
6 |
|
|
| |
|
|
DCF(CFA materials) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Damodaran's DCF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Session 7: Estimating Cash Flows |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gYT3Xgs6NE&list=PLUkh9m2BorqnKWu0g5ZUps_CbQ-JGtbI9&index=7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10月3日 |
4 |
|
企業盈餘品質衡量, 分析 與管理 |
|
|
|
chapter 4 |
|
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
| |
|
|
What is quality |
|
|
|
|
|
一頁作業 -- 如何判斷一家公司的盈餘品質好不好? |
|
| |
|
|
financial-statement-analysis-applications(CFA materials) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10月10日 |
5 |
|
國慶日 (No class) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10月17日 |
6 |
|
企業財務決策之衡量, 分析 與管理 |
|
|
|
chapter 5 |
一頁作業 -- 如何判斷一家公司做對財務決策? |
6 |
|
|
| |
|
|
Corporate Governance and ESG:(CFA materials) |
|
|
|
一頁作業 -- 如何判斷一家公司 have good corporate governance? |
| |
|
|
Two experts debate the pros and cons of ESG |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WTpDGGn4t4 |
|
|
|
|
|
分組報告(1) -- 個案產業與公司選擇的理由 ( 15 min.) |
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10月24日 |
7 |
|
外資評價報告觀摩 及分析師考題練習 |
|
|
|
一頁作業 -- 外資報告的閱讀心得, |
6 |
|
|
| |
|
|
2022 CFA 競賽得獎報告PDF |
|
|
2022 CFA 競賽得獎報告PresentationPDF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
2017 CFA Challenge case study |
|
|
|
|
有那些可借鏡納入分組報告? |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
2017 CFA 競賽得獎報告ppt |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 10月31日 |
8 |
|
無形資產與企業價值 |
|
|
|
|
Chapter 14 |
一頁作業 -- 個案公司最重要的intangible assets是什麼? |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11月7日 |
9 |
|
分組期中個案報告(2) --key value drivers and firm value |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
(1) --EVA, FCF, profit margin. Capital turnover, WACC 可否解釋企業價值 (vs. 類似公司)? |
|
9 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
(2) --盈餘品質, Intangibles, 公司治理, 財務決策可否解釋企業價值 (vs. 類似公司)? |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PART II: Valuation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11月14日 |
10 |
|
類似公司比價法 Comparables Valuation |
|
|
chap.6 |
一頁作業 -- 類似公司比價法的背後假設為何? |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
| |
|
|
Demodaran PPT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Fixing the Peer Group Problem (CFA materials) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
market-based-valuation-price-enterprise-value-multiples(CFA materials) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Stick to the Fundamentals and Discover Your Peers |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11月21日 |
11 |
|
折現法1: DCF Valaution |
|
|
|
chap.7 |
一頁作業 -- DCF適用的條件為何? |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
| |
|
|
comment on Demodaran's DCF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Demodaran DCF |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Free Cash Flow valuation(CFA materials) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Session 10: More on growth, terminal value and DCF Model Choices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VJxERUDAOcw&list=PLUkh9m2Borqkl7FoAhhWY4piiZPFJs5_e&index=11 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Discount rate如何決定? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Free cash flow DCF valuation |
solution |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 11月28日 |
12 |
|
折現法2: EVA Valuation |
|
|
|
chap.8 |
一頁作業 -- EVA model 適用的條件為何? |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
| |
|
|
Residual Income model(CFA materials) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
DCF vs. EVA model |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
EVA valuation |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12月5日 |
13 |
|
無形資產評價 |
|
|
|
|
Chapter 14 |
|
|
|
6 |
|
|
| |
|
|
釋例一 配銷協議之評1 |
|
|
|
|
一頁作業 -- Intangible valuation 相較於企業評價 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
private-company-valuation (CFA materials) |
|
|
|
|
的最大挑戰為何? |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Assessing Value in the Digital Economy (CFA materials) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| PART III. Case studies |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12月12日 |
14 |
|
評價之挑戰及常犯的錯誤 |
|
|
|
|
|
一頁作業:企評的挑戰及常犯的錯誤及避免之道為何? |
|
| |
|
|
Most common errors in valuations |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12月19日 |
15 |
|
Aswath Damodaran On The ‘Dark Side Of Valuation’ |
|
|
|
|
|
一頁作業 --Damodaran提及企評可能犯常犯的錯誤? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DtpkMOjH7s&t=729s |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
The Big Market Delusion Valuation and Investment Implications(FAJ,2020) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Numbers and Narratives |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN1RU9i3ngg |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 12月26日 |
16 |
|
CFA speech Lesson from COVID19 (Aswath Damodaran,2020/11) |
|
|
|
|
|
一頁作業 -- 演講的聽後心得 -- 有那些可借鏡納入報告? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
https://www.cfainstitute.org/research/multimedia/2020/crisis-as-crucible |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1月2日 |
17 |
外資評價報告觀摩 |
|
|
|
|
|
一頁作業 -- 學長姊報告 vs. 外資報告的閱讀心得 -- 有那些可借鏡納入報告? |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
CFA Challenge 冠軍 case study1 |
case study 2 |
ppt1 |
|
ppt2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
樣本期末報告1 Nike |
樣本期末報告2 台光電 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
樣本期末報告3 Nvidia |
樣本期末報告4 微星 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
期末報告Q&A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1月9日 |
18 |
|
期末個案報告 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
12 |
|
|
| |
|
|
*類似公司評價報告 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
*DCF vs. EVA評價報告 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
*無形資產評價 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
期末自評與互評 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
期末分組個案報告與個人作業 revised繳交日(2022/1/16) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 課堂進行方式:前半段老師講授,中間休息20分, 後半段個人作業討論或分組報告, 討論, 並由老師指導 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 評分方式 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 個人課堂參與 /作業 |
30% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 期中報告 |
|
|
|
30% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 期末分組報告 |
|
40% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 個案選擇依據 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1. 上市櫃公司(含興櫃與國外公司) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2. 一個產業或次產業, 至少有兩家公司可比較 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 3. 所選產業, 至少有一家公司近三年平均ROE >15%, 愈高愈好, 產業內愈多公司ROE >10%的產業愈好 |
|
|
|
|
|
|